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The hangover of the December holidays typically lingers a few weeks into the new year and 2010 was no exception. Tight ranges in the S&P gave us very few trading setups early in the month. We spent a protracted amount of time out of the market. As the month wore on and equity prices began to deteriorate, our programs managed to find a few suitable trading situations. The late month expansion in volatility notwithstanding, opportunities remained few and far between and as such, ROE Capital turned in a positive month with below average trading volume. (For more information on our managed futures performance, please review our complete January performance report).

Our correlation to the S&P has begun to reverse, which is good as I expect the S&P to be under pressure all year. Our managed futures colleagues (represented in the NewEdge CTA Index above) struggled in January as well, with trends proving elusive in many markets.

Monticello EquityJanuary 2010:1.03%2010 YTD: 1.03%

Jefferson IndexJanuary 2010:1.00%2010 YTD: 1.00%

S&P 500January 2010:(3.70%)2010 YTD: (3.70%)

Newedge CTA IndexJanuary 2010:(1.44%)‡2010 YTD: (1.44%)‡

‡Estimate using data reported by 2/1/2010 | Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The better than expected GDP reported in January failed to reverse the equity losses of the month. All of the major averages took out their December lows which, as I noted in my year end review, is a bad omen for 2010 equity prices. After the beginning of the month bounce, the January jobs report looms large. Since February is seasonally the second worst performing month for the S&P, a catalyst will be required for a rally to gain traction.

A rally might materialize from a much stronger than expected jobs report building on strong ISM numbers. Without that catalyst, the S&P should move sideways to lower throughout February. The geopolitical situation looks to add pressure to equity prices as well. Iran is bristling over the US decision to deploy a patriot missile shield in the Persian Gulf. China is moving to cap its real estate bubble through tighter monetary policy, which will negatively impact global growth. Greece is facing what Moody’s called a “slow death” as it is unable to attract buyers for its debt at sustainable rates.

Taken in total, equities face an uphill battle in February. It is my hope that this added pressure will reveal more trading setups for my models.

At the end of January and in our year end review, we noted that the macro conditions argued for rising volatility in the major averages with sideways to lower prices throughout February. This was indeed the case in the first week of the month as the VIX raced to new 2010 highs and the S&P to new 2010 lows. This situation gave rise to many trading opportunities for our systems early in the month. Volatility faded sharply mid-month on the back of the equity rally, reducing our opportunities and we spent most of the last week of February in cash. Traders made several attempts to break the market at the end of the month, but prices rebounded to close the month.

Our Monticello Equity Spreads program booked its most successful month since April of 2009, with the Jefferson Index posting its most successful month since December of 2008 and its 12th consecutive positive month. (For detailed performance results, click here.) For the second month in a row, both of our programs had nearly identical performance, despite substantial variance in trading through the month. That is unlikely to continue.

The macro environment has not improved since our last survey. The situation in Greece has taken a turn for the absurd, as it becomes clear that it used OTC derivatives to mask the depth of its deficit and debt. Greece and its euro-zone equivalents remain unable to address their fiscal shortcomings because public unions undermine the political will to cut off the public trough. More than one sovereign default is imminent.

A similar situation continues to play out in various debt swamped US states. As Illinois is our home, it is our favorite example. The state finally admitted that it will likely have a $13 billion dollar budget shortfall-almost half it’s core 2010 budget-which is almost as much as California’s deficit, though Illinois has 1/3 the population of the Golden State. The politicians are talking about raising revenues to meet the crisis, but even a 300% hike in state income taxes would not fill the gap (especially considering the decline in incomes and employment in this recession). And of course, addressing only revenue sources does nothing to fix structural budget imbalances, enormous unfunded pension and health benefit liabilities or general government waste. California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, North Carolina and Florida are not far behind. Without a federal bailout, Illinois should be in default before the end of the year.

We want to be clear on what the risk of this unfolding sovereign debt crisis means. As all recent economic data has indicated, the global recovery is soft-even after trillions of dollars were thrown into the financial system by central banks and governments. High levels of public debt have prolonged past recoveries by placing debt burdens on future growth, but this debt environment is very different. Never before have so many wealthy nations carried such high levels of public debt. Either Western governments reign in the spending, which will keep us in a protracted (but necessary) period of economic stagnation, or they march onward to default, which brings on the second wave of global financial crisis. This is not a question of if for us, but when. Living standards in the West have increased on paper asset inflation in the last 20 years; that “juice” has to come out of the market, living standards must revert to income levels and then real economic growth can resume.

The disconnect between US equity market prices and reality will continue in the short term. The S&P 500 has retraced a little over 50% toward its 2010 high. Traders will gun for 1150 in the S&P, pouring into stocks the first days of the month of March. This rally should fade by the end of the first week and the S&P will be range-bound awaiting news (look for a potential surprise lower in the February non-farm payroll number). Bernanke indicated that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates, but it is ending the purchase of mortgage backed securities at the end of March which could test the banks. If previous shallow recessions are any indication this deep recession will necessitate prolonged record low interest rates for years, even in the face of a sovereign debt crisis. With the euro in crisis, the dollar will find support in the lack of a currency alternative. Stocks remain cheap to cash, so the major averages should rally until the sovereign debt crisis forces the market to test its 2010 lows.

We expect near term volatility to return to elevated levels in the next few weeks. This should provide our systems with many trading opportunities in March.

John L. Roe| President | ROE Capital Management, Inc. | http://www.roecapital.com

Ranked as one of the top stock index CTAs in 2009. | For performance – http://www.roecapital.com/perform.asp | For market commentary – http://www.roecapital.com/newsleters.htm

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. An investment with ROE Capital Management is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is designed only for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the loss of more than their entire investment. Read and examine the disclosure document before seeking ROE Capital Management’s services.

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Here is Coachella Valley Business Attorney Sebastian Gibson’s Top Ten:

1. Closer to home.

 

2. You can keep a closer eye on Putin rearing his head from Russia.

 

3. You can’t have a good sled dog race in Washington, D.C.

 

4. John McCain still has those photos you’d rather forget.

 

5. The First Dude likes it here.

 

6. You can keep reporters waiting in the cold.

 

7. No need to keep track of Supreme Court decisions here.

 

8. You can fire a state trooper in Alaska.

 

9. Tina Fey doesn’t come here.

 

10. Too many democrats in Washington, D.C.

 

Now here is everything (well, almost everything) you need in business about personal injury, car accidents, brain damage, wrongful deaths, business, real estate, landlord-tenant, homeowners association law, construction, patents, trademarks, corporations, entertainment law, advertising, copyrights, and litigation without making any serious legal missteps.  

If you need to know more about business environmental, international law, election and campaign law, consumer law, class actions, constitutional, internet, publishing, advertising, media, food and wine, hotel and restaurant law, estate planning, wills, trusts, water law, agricultural, insurance law, bad faith, psychologist and psychotherapist defense, education law or child accidents, you can find valuable information by searching for those subjects and adding the words Coachella Valley business lawyer or Coachella Valley business attorney to your search terms and looking for other articles by Sebastian Gibson.

 

You can also learn more about any of these business areas of law and how we can assist you as Coachella Valley business attorneys, or as lawyers in any city, by calling the Law Offices of R. Sebastian Gibson at any of the numbers which can be found on our website at http://www.SebastianGibsonLaw.com  .

 

1. Personal Injury, Car Accidents, Drowning Accidents, Brain Damage, Catastrophic Injuries and Wrongful Deaths in The Coachella Valley – If you’ve had a Coachella Valley auto, motorcycle, truck, pedestrian, bicycle, bus, train, airplane or car accident of any kind, get the other driver’s information, take camera or cell phone pictures, call the police, get a report, seek medical treatment immediately, call us or another good Coachella Valley personal injury lawyer, follow up with more medical treatment if you are still hurt, report the accident to your insurance agent, file a report with the DMV and don’t talk to anyone else or give a recorded statement until you talk with us. If you’ve lost a loved on in an accident, call us or another good Coachella Valley personal injury lawyer immediately. If you’ve been bitten by a dog, get treatment, call animal control and then call us. If you or someone you know has come close to drowning, seek medical treatment immediately as death or serious injury can still occur hours later.

 

2. Coachella Valley Business – Put everything in writing and preferably with our help or the help of another good Coachella Valley business lawyer. Spend money only as you need to. A Coachella Valley business attorney can tell you where to save costs and how to do it without risking liability. Limit your promises to employees and to customers. Buy insurance. Protect your intellectual property at the outset. Don’t disclose your inventions or any trade secrets to anyone without a non-disclosure agreement. Incorporate as soon as you are profitable. Get legal advice for problems or indications of pending lawsuits immediately. Keep all costs, including labor costs, to the bare minimum. Always use confidentiality agreements when disclosing valuable information and be careful what information you agree to receive. Tell customers they must pay in advance or on delivery. Do not agree to bill and be paid at a date after delivery. Otherwise you won’t be paid on a percentage of your products. Be wary of the potential for fraud by customers, business partners and employees.

 

3. Residential and Commercial Real Estate, Landlord Tenant Law, Mortgage Law and Homeowners Association Law in The Coachella Valley – Use a Coachella Valley real estate lawyer who is also a Realtor, or a Realtor who is also a Coachella Valley real estate attorney. Don’t buy or lease more than you need. Choose the right location. Choose the right mortgage. Don’t refinance if you think you may need to walk away from a home. Don’t buy more than you can afford. Check out the neighborhood carefully. Get a home inspection and a home warranty. Have a Coachella Valley real estate lawyer look over the documents. Homeowner Associations are facing a host of problems stemming from the number of foreclosures. As fees are reduced by vacant homes and condos, projects must be trimmed back or delayed in order to save money. Some homeowner associations, who were already in trouble, may face additional problems in the future and both homeowners and their associations should consult with legal counsel to help resolve how to deal with such issues.

 

4. Construction in The Coachella Valley – With the construction industry in it’s biggest ever slump, down more than 90% from its peak in many areas, Coachella Valley contractors need to shift their focus to energy free homes, apartment construction and to take advantage of contracts likely to be offered for bid under the new administration’s plan to create new jobs rebuilding the country’s infrastructure, construction of roads, bridges, the electrical grid and other utility projects. If you are dealing with contractors yourself, always use licensed contractors and have a Coachella Valley construction lawyer look over your contracts. You can also investigate the contractor online to ensure he is licensed and insured and a Coachella Valley construction attorney can do an additional investigation at little extra cost. Never pay a contractor the entire sum for a project at the start. Put all agreements in writing, including any changes.

 

5. Coachella Valley Patents and Biotechnology – A patent should be applied for, for any new, and non-obvious process, or invention and to any new improvement of an invention at first opportunity. A patent is good for 20 years. Depending upon the complexity, most utility patent applications will cost between $8,000 and $12,000.00. A design patent can be applied for by a Coachella Valley patent attorney, for the look of an item and is good for 14 years. A provisional patent can be applied for, good for one year at a cost of half of the usual utility patent cost but is only good for one year. If the inventor does not upgrade the provisional patent into a utility patent application within that period, usually for the cost of the remainder of the corresponding cost of a utility patent, the inventor loses his or her protection. A patent is pending once it has been applied for, and can be licensed, or sold outright. Without a patent, others can make and sell your invention with no compensation to you. Patent searches help the Coachella Valley patent lawyer write an application around existing patents and cost an additional sum, usually under $1,000.00. Drawings must also be prepared for the patent application usually for under $500.00. A design patent can be sought for between $1,000 to $1,500 and a European design patent for between $2,000 to $2,500. Accelerated patent applications usually cost an additional 50% of normal patent applications. Foreign patent applications also require additional fees.

 

6. Coachella Valley Trademarks – Trademark any original logos, designs, words, phrases, symbols or combinations that you use to identify your products or services as soon as possible. Call a Coachella Valley trademark attorney as soon as anyone else’s trademark or service mark is so similar as to cause a likelihood of confusion in the public or if you receive a cease and desist letter from someone else accusing you of infringement. Trademark applications range from between $2,500 if there has not yet been any use of the trademark to $1,500 to apply for a trademark already in use. Therefore, to save money, create some products and advertising materials and apply for the trademark once they are ready to be sold and advertised.

 

7. Coachella Valley Corporations – Never incorporate by yourself. Corporations will not protect you from liability if you do not follow corporate formalities correctly. Protect your intellectual property from the start with the help of a Coachella Valley corporations attorney. Don’t borrow someone else’s employee handbook or fire problematic employees without legal advice. Don’t get investors without seeing one of our Coachella Valley corporate attorneys. Cut costs to the bone. Use extra money to advertise, and sell in new markets. A Coachella Valley corporations lawyer can provide you with advice as to which type of corporation or LLC to use for your business.

 

8. Entertainment Law, Sports Law, Marketing, Advertising, Media and Copyrights in The Coachella Valley – Whether you are a musician, an actor, a model, a writer, an athlete, a broadcaster or connected in any other way to the entertainment industry, contact us or another good Coachella Valley entertainment attorney as soon as anyone gives you a contract to sign. Signing a bad contract can end your career before it’s ever begun. As soon as you have written any body of work, have it copyrighted. You can do this quite easily yourself, but if you need assistance or if someone else infringes your copyrighted work, you can then file suit against such a party.

 

9. Coachella Valley Litigation – At the first sign that someone may sue you or your business, consult with a Coachella Valley litigation attorney. Many times, a lawsuit can be forestalled before it has been filed or the matter resolved with letters between the litigation attorneys. If you are served with a lawsuit, hire a Coachella Valley litigation lawyer like one from our firm who specializes in mediations and non-binding arbitrations so your litigation can be resolved at the soonest possible opportunity and limit your exposure to years of lawyer’s fees and costs as your case winds slowly through the courts.

 

10. Employment Law in the Coachella Valley – It may seem silly to think you should hire a Coachella Valley employment attorney whenever you are considering firing an employee, but it has come to that. However, a consultation with a good Coachella Valley employment law firm can provide you with the advice of how to handle your employee relations both immediately and in the future as you either seek to cut costs or get rid of a problematic employee. If you have been sued or threatened with a suit, or are being scammed by an employee, consult a Coachella Valley employment lawyer immediately.

 

If you have a legal matter in the Coachella Valley, Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Coachella, La Quinta, Indio, Indian Wells, Cathedral City, Desert Hot Springs, Thermal, Yucca Valley, Joshua Tree, Twentynine Palms or Rancho Mirage, our Coachella Valley law firm has the knowledge and resources to be your Coachella Valley Lawyers and your Coachella Valley Attorneys. Be sure to hire a Coachella Valley law firm with experience in Personal Injury, Car Accidents, Drownings, Brain Damage, Catastrophic Injuries, Wrongful Death, Business, Real Estate and Landlord Tenant Law, Homeowner Association Law, Construction, Trademarks, Patents, Corporations, Entertainment, Sports Law, Marketing, Advertising, Media, and Copyright Law, and who will endeavor to ensure that your rights are properly represented.

 

Additionally, if you have a legal matter which involves Environmental and Toxic Tort Law, Litigation, International, Shipping and Maritime Law, Employment, Election and Campaign Finance Law, Consumer Law and Class Actions, Constitutional, Publishing, Publicity, Privacy Rights, Internet Law, Advertising and Media Law, Food and Wine Law, Hotel and Restaurant Law, Estate Planning, Wills and Trusts, Water, Agricultural and Natural Resource Law, Insurance Law, Bad Faith and Psychiatrist and Psychotherapist Defense, Education Law or a Child Accident in The Coachella Valley or anywhere in Southern California, call the Law Offices of R. Sebastian Gibson, or visit our website at http://www.SebastianGibsonLaw.com  and learn how a Coachella Valley attorney from our offices can assist you.

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